January, 1st Month - Has 31 Days

Conjecture of the Weather

January 2011
Weather Summary. First half of January should below normal, and drier then normal. Normal average temperature for January is 33.2 degrees. Normal rainfall is 3.50" inches. Normal snowfall, 4.7" inches. Warmest January ever, 43.9 degrees in 1933. Coldest January, 14.8 degrees in 1977. Highest recorded temperature, 76.0 degrees on January 24 1943. Lowest recorded temperature, minus -21.0 degrees below zero on January 17 1977. Most snowfall, 21.3" inches in 1977.

A strong cold front moves through around 4AM January 1 for the New Year. A few rain showers precede the cold front Friday 31 night.

Jan 1-2
High pressure rules. Lows 14-18, high around 35. Mostly clear, and cold.

Jan 2-3 Another cold front to the NW diving our way, a storm developing to our SW spreading rain, further N of I-64 snow to start with.

Jan 4-5 snow likely, windy. Possible merging of the two systems as they exit out to the NE.

6-7 Colder, high pressure builds in from the NW for next few days.

8-10 Some nusense light snow break out mainly over night hours.

11-12 Turning windy (south wind), and warmer. Between 14 and 17 should see warmer morning temperatures under mostly dry conditions. Any storms about on the 16 should well off to the ESE.

19-21 Full Moon
Rain that changes over to all Snow, then much colder.

22-24
A warming trend sets in for the next several days. Dry.

26 Last Quarter

26-28 Seasonable temperature. Late evening rain, mix, or snow is indicated as a cold front swings in from the NW.

29-31
A warming trend is in store for the weekend. Slightly gusty SW winds has temperatures rising overnight (29) th. Skies become overcast late as Low develops to our SW. Above normal temperatures end by 31 st as Arctic air from the NW desends and meets up with the developing storm over the SW, Texas? Dropping temperatures by start of February!

February, 2nd Month - Has 28 Days

Conjecture of the Weather

February Long Range Forecast
Average February temperate is 36.0 degrees. Warmest February ever, 1932 with a average temperature of 46.3 degrees. Coldest February on record is 1978 when temperatures averaged just 20.9 degrees. On February 13, 1962 the temperature hit a high of 79.0 degree. A temperature of minus -23.0 degrees below zero occurred on February 2, 1951. Normal rainfall is 2.93", and normal snowfall is 4.3" inches. Most snowfall ever was 18.4" inches in 1993. Indiana , as a rule, has quite variable climate from the warmer climate of the 1930’s to vary cold Winters of 1976-77. We like it!

First half of February is below normal as is third week except for the very end. Most of the precipitation will come in the first week. Warmer mornings around 11-13th. Fronts, jet stream will tend to be further north along with SW wind. Lows (storms) tend to develop over the Rockies head NE. Back to colder temperatures, and NW wind by the 15-16 after precipitation rain/snow exits off to the East.

Feb 2nd   New Moon 21:01
Historically wet, however February starts out on the warm side 1-2. A significant low over the SW moves NE towards SWIN. Rain, snow, and freezing rain. Well above normal temperature until a strong cold front pushes through on Tuesday night early Wednesday (snowy-windy). Much below normal temperatures (unsettled weather) is the rule for the rest of the 3, and 4th, 5th on the windy side towards the weekend.

Feb 6
Another system to our NW brings in a chance of light rain, over to light snow for Cntrl-Indiana on the 6-7th. The 7th, and 8th very cold with more snow. Might be a good time inside to start those slow growing seeds like peppers. Moon is increasing in Pisces a few days away from First Quarter.
9th Still cold, flurries possible. 10th, Dry back door cold front. Warming trend setting up.

Feb 11 First Quarter Moon
12-13. SW wind. Low pressure develops over the Rockies, heads our way. Rain over Indiana, snow for Iowa.

Feb 14
Max temperature is reached for this week. A strong cold front rain has rain changing over to all snow as exits off to the NE, and much colder air returns to stay awhile over the 15, 16, 17 th. Winter holds it grip to remind us Winter isn’t over yet.

Feb 18th  Full Moon 03:06

19th  Lunar Perigee
The cold eases as a large high pressure slowly moves off the east coast. SW wind returns through the 19th, and 20th. Enjoy!

Feb 21
21-22nd Weak upper level disturbances move through with little, or no precip.

22-23rd Mild. Zonal flow with systems mostly staying north of I-70.

Feb 24th  Apogee

24-25th   Mild conditions continue. A front takes shape over the Plains.

26-27th   A front slowly moves through. May set off a few sparse rain showers.
Cold air waits in Canada to make it’s entrance first day few days of March!
Feb 28th

March, 3rd Month - Has 31 Days

Conjecture of the Weather

April, 4th Month - Has 30 Days

Conjecture of the Weather

May, 5th Month - Has 31 Days

Conjecture of the Weather

June, 6th Month - Has 30 Days

Conjecture of the Weather

June Long Range Weather Forecast…

June climate normals, extreams. Normal average temperature for June is 75.0 degrees. Warmest June on record, 1952. Coldest June on record, 1955. A all time record of 104.0 degrees on June 26th, and a record Low of 41.0 was recorded on June 01, 1966. Normal rainfall is 3.76" inches. A record rainfall of 11.44" inches well in 1900.  Driest year on record, 0.38" inches for June 1933.
Conjecture of the weather…

A cool start, then warming to hot from 4-9, then TS and cooler 11-14. Back to hot and humid. Most active weather 27-30 also tropics pick up through the end of June, but also 12-16th.   Above normal temperatures the rule in general especially after the 20th.

New Moon 15:33
1st   Cool start with high pressure in control for a day, or two. N wind becoming E, or SE. Nearby front (warm) may bring a slight shower near the 4, 5 th. Temp range 64-89 degrees.
5th    Front nearby, but dry conditions continue. Hot, dry.

08th  Hot, and dry. A cold front from the NW will bring a few TS late on the 10th, then a cold front should push through on the 11th.

12th Cooler for day, or two, but a disturbance from the SW threatens the far SW portion of Indiana on 14th more TS possible. TS next few days will bring in more wind. Mercury conjuncts the Sun.

Full (Strawberry) Moon…
15th TS threat ending. Cooler weather for a day, or two. Enjoy.
19th   TS in the vicinity on the 17-18th!   Hot, humid (warm front north) that may hang on as Fronts stalls.

Summer (Ingress) Sun enters Cancer at 12:16:32 Venus resides over 95 degrees Longitude. I expect above normal rainfall for the Summer Kansas, Oklahoma. Some of that may be Gulf moisture streaming up from the SW.

June 23 rd Last Quarter Moon…
23rd  SW wind. High pressure blocks fronts from moving east while Lows push NE along the Canadian border. A squall line, or outflow boundary push some TS, wind in between 24-25th that provides temporary relief.

27th  Periods of last night TS 26-28th. A cold front should move through late on the 28th. Tropics should be alive from the June 26th to 7-2

July, 7th Month - Has 31 Days

Conjecture of the Weather

July Long Range Forecast & Climatology
Average monthly temperature for July is 78.6 degrees.  Warmest July on record 85.1 degree in 1936.  Coolest July ever 72.8 degrees in 1947.   Highest temperature on record is 111.0 degrees on July 28, 1930.   Lowest temperature on record is 47.0 degrees on July 23 rd in 1947.   Wettest July 10.32” inches in 1910.  Driest 0.18” inches 1974.

June 28 through 30 high pressure rules after a front heads south with cooler air builds into SWIN.   Second half of July 2011 temperatures should be above normal.

July 01 New Moon 03:24
Warm front approaching brings late TS to the region on Friday.  Much warmer through July 2-3.

July 4-8
July 4th brings in showers, and TS late in the day on Monday through Tuesday.  Turning  cooler briefly on 5-6th.  Out west (105 degree) longitude indicates a wet system over the SW along about the 8-9th moving in from the West coast.

July 11-13
Possible heavy TS, wind SW shifting to NW, cooler, but unsettled weather next day, or so as front stalls with a shower, or TS through the period.  Warm, muggy!

Full Moon 01:39
July 15-18 
Front lifts North may bring more TS to the area from the West on the 16-18th followed by cooler air for N half of Indiana with cloudy, unsettled weather for southern half. 

July 18-22  Apogee
Fronts, TS cells moving much faster.  Severe TS, wind damage the main threat 21 to the 22nd as a cold front sweeps in from the Plains.  Colder air will filter in as high pressure builds in from the Plains.

July 23-25   Solar Ingress – Sun enters Leo
Systems staying further North through this phase.  A dry weakening cold front tries to sweep through the area. Muggy, and hot holds on!

July 27-28
TS, cold front.  High pressure (somewhat cooler) rules!

July 26-30  New Moon  13:39
Back to hot after 28-29th.  Late afternoon convective TS 28-31 St.

August, 8th Month - Has 31 Days

Conjecture of the Weather

August normal climate, and extremes. August has a annual average temperature of 76.9 degrees. Warmest August on record is 84.1 degrees set in 1936. Coldest August ever is 1967 with a average temperature of just 70.0 degrees! A record high of 105.0 was recorded on August 9th, 1930. Record low of 43.0 was recorded on August 29th, 1986. Normal rainfall is around 3.07" inches. A record rainfall of 8.43" inches fell in 1977. Driest August on record is 1943 with just 0.13" inches reported.

Temperatures to average normal to slightly below normal. A cool down around 4-6th, again around 20-23rd. Best amounts of rain could be around 17-20th. I have added average temperatures to be expected through each period. Expect temperatures to be near, or below normal with precipitation above normal.

Starting out, August has an old weak stationary warm front over the Tri-State with a few TS by late evening over the July 29 to 31th period as a squall line/cold front moves down from the north.

8/2/2011 67 to 87
A cold front sags south across SWIN that may bring a few showers, and a brief cool down followed additional strong TS as front hangs up. Cool down 3rd, 4th. A few could even see temperatures in the 50’s for lows.

8/6/2011 61 to 89
A cold front to the south of the Ohio river lifts north as a warm front. That could bring in heavier (tropical like) rains, and TS into the area on the 7th, and 8th.

8/9/2011 64 to 92
Mercury is retrograde, sign change. Some wind along with (tropical like) TS moving off to the east with a few lingering TS that may stay another day.

8/13/2011 72 to 94
Scattered to broken squall line ( to the west) brings some wind, lightning as warm front heads back north. Heat returns to stay awhile.

8/17/2011 67 to 90
Wet, TS with best chances north of I-70 16-17th A cold front is advancing off the east coast. High pressure in control, but warmer, and humidity. Popup TS possible late in the day 18-20th.

8/21/2011 61 to 85
Stationary warm front nearby…occasionally TS 21-22nd. Most rain should exit 23rd, 24th with somewhat cooler air filtering in.

8/25/2011 56 to 86
Cooler air exits to the east with some spotty rain. High pressure rules 26-27th.

8/28/2011 57 to 89
Cold (mostly dry) cold front moves through. Some northern states may see lows in the lower 40’s by the 29th to 31st.

September, 9th Month - Has 30 Days

Conjecture of the Weather

September Climate …
Average monthly temperature for September is 70.2 degrees. Coldest September on record with a average temperature of 63.1 degrees was 1949. Warmest September on record (average) 78.3 degrees in 1925. Coldest September 63.1 degrees (average) in 1949. A high of 104.0 degrees was recorded on September 6th, 1925, and a record low of 31.0 degrees was recorded on September 29th, 1942. Normal rainfall is 3.02" inches.  No snow has ever been recorded for the month.

Conjecture of the weather…
After a cool down at the beginning of September temperatures it warms back up by the 12th, 13th through the 19th. Impressive drop off of temperature 26th-29th. Brrr.

9/1
Cooler, perhaps crisp NW blows last of August, beginning of September

 9 / 4    First Quarter Moon
TS possible along with heavy at times. Fronts will be sluggish that may cause rain to stay over an area for a period of time.

 9 / 8
Warm and humid along with a few spotty showers.

 9/12  Full Moon Harvest Moon – Farmers may be harvesting by Moon light tonight!
A few isolated T-showers late afternoon, clearing after Sundown.

 9/16
A general warm-up with an occasional dry cold front. Fronts generally reside over the Great Lakes region through this period. May be the last major warm-up.

 9/20   Third Quarter Moon
A shift in the weather! After a warm-up, scattered TS, colder air pushes in from the NW behind departing Low (tropical) system off the east coast. Cool, unsettled weather, then a warm-up briefly.

 9/24
Another round of faster moving cold front/S bring rain, and a few embedded TS into the area bringing even colder air to the region through this period. Possible freeze advisory north of I-70 26-28th.

 9/27    Sun Ingress – Libra Also New Moon
Frost advisory north of I-70 around the 26-28th after last front pushes south of the region on, or about the 25th. Brrr!

 9/30
Unsettled, rain. Additional cold fronts keep taking the temperature down a notch!

October, 10th Month - Has 31 Days

Conjecture of the Weather

November, 11th Month - Has 30 Days

Conjecture of the Weather

December, 12th Month - Has 31 Days

Conjecture of the Weather